Zolnier Road to the Championship: Week 14

by Cameron Irvine

EDIT: It was previously reported that Canton had locked up the 7-seed. Since head-to-head applies before division winner status does, Canton could still lose the 7-seed to D.C. based on head-to-head if those two teams become tied.

Well it all comes down to this. And while there are still 8,192 possible scenarios with 13 games remaining in the regular season, we'll tell you what we do know on the Road to the Championship, presented by Zolnier Championship Rings:

  • By the time Saturday's games are over, the 8,192 scenarios will be whittled down to just eight. Those eight scenarios will be broken down on the league's live stream Scenario Show, Saturday night at 11:45 pm ET.
  • Houston has been officially eliminated. The Headhunters would have the worst SOV among 6-6 teams and hold no head-to-head tiebreaker over any 6-5 team. Since either Charleston or D.C. will finish the season 6-6, a potential 6-6 common games tiebreaker against Las Vegas and San Diego wouldn't come into play before the Headhunters are eliminated on SOV. Houston may be the worst team effected this season by the Central Division's inability to stack wins.
  • That leaves seven different teams are fighting for the final four spots unclaimed. Strength of victory will undoubtedly come into play in determining those spots in a 7-5 or 6-6 logjam. Louisiana has a SOV of .333, but it can launch as high as .413 with a win + Carolina win + Jacksonville win. Vancouver has a SOV of .379, but it can launch as high as .437 with a win + Los Angeles win + Denver win + Las Vegas win. San Diego is the only team of the seven that plays a team under .500 this week, which means it has the easiest path to 7-5. The Mavericks max SOV could be is worse than it is now - .350 with another win over Denver + a Vancouver win.
  • San Diego, Mexico City and Louisiana were 7-5 last season and left out in the cold with a whopping nine teams finishing 7-5. Will any 7-5 teams be left behind this season? It's possible none could be or a max of two would miss.
  • Indianapolis will win the Central with a victory over Sioux Falls. If the Ramblers fail to take care of business, the winner of Minnesota/Tulsa will win the Central and enter the playoffs as the 12-seed and would face the 5-seed in the wild card round.
  • The winner of Alamo City/Fort Worth will be the 1-seed.
  • Minnesota is 3-8 with a +11 point differential. Charleston is 6-5 with a -8 point differential. Football is wild.