Geno's Minor League Mashup Week 7: Crunch Time
It's crunch time in the SFLm. Teams look to clinch a playoff berth, players look to improve their draft stock, and Cam gets to stress about everything in the offseason. It's a cycle as old as time... well, more like the 7 seasons that the SFLm has existed. This week, we'll be looking at an in-depth overview of each team's playoff situation, as well as a new edition of the Quarterly Power Rankings!
Record: 3-3 (6th)
Remaining Schedule: vs LEX, @ LIN
Geno's "Playoff Percentage" © : 15%
The Atoms got stuck with a tough last two games, with both coming against top-4 teams. The upside for them is that they're coming in on a 2-game winning streak. If they go 2-0, they guarantee at least a tiebreaker for the final spot, as at least one of the three teams tied below Lexington will lose a game (Madison plays Annapolis next week.) They want to hope for a tiebreaker with Madison and Madison only, as the Atoms will likely be on the tail end of any 3 or 4-way ties.
Record: 4-2 (4th)
Remaining Schedule: vs SJF, @ MAD
Geno's "Playoff Percentage" © : 75%
Annapolis looks to have the toughest path to securing a playoff spot out of the 4-2 teams, as both of their remaining games are against .500 or better teams. They are also on the bottom of the current tiebreaker, as their +24 point differential is 4th in the league. They aren't quite in a win-and-in situation, so their Madison game is BY FAR their more important game. Beating Madison would secure an easy path through, as long as they don't tank their PD.
Record: 5-1 (1st)
Remaining Schedule: @ ABQ, @ SJF
Geno's "Playoff Percentage" © : 99.999%
Let's make it clear: Lexington should make the playoffs, even if they go 0-2. They would likely win any tiebreaker by point differential if it needs to go that far. MAD, SJF, and ABQ would be the only teams that would have a chance to beat them if the Miners go 0-2. We'll see what the tiebreakers have in store if that happens.
Record: 4-2 (3rd)
Remaining Schedule: @ TAC, vs ABQ
Geno's "Playoff Percentage" © : 80%
Lincoln has been ON POINT this year, and with an easy remaining schedule, they should easily be in. With just one win, 99% of tiebreakers will result in a top-4 seed, so it's pretty much another win-and-in situation here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lincoln have a shot at the top seed if Lexington and Madison slip.
Record: 4-2 (2nd)
Remaining Schedule: @ OTT, vs ANN
Geno's "Playoff Percentage" © : 90%
Madison is leading the 4-2 tie with a +34 point differential, setting them up nicely for whatever tie they'll likely end up in. The Lynx have a similar win-and-in situation, as they should be in with any tiebreakers. A win over Annapolis and a positive PD in these final two weeks would secure a playoff berth, as well as MANY other possibilities.
OTTAWA CAVALRY: ELIMINATED
SAN JOSE FLIGHT
Record: 3-3 (5th)
Remaining Schedule: @ ANN, vs LEX
Geno's "Playoff Percentage" © : 15%
San Jose has the tough task of taking down both Annapolis AND Lexington, the two longest-lasting undefeated teams. Going 2-0 would be a HUGE help, but it wouldn't necessarily guarantee a berth. Tiebreakers are their doom, as they have the worst point differential of the 6 teams still alive for a playoff berth.
TACOMA GRIZZLIES: ELIMINATED
Now it's time for the last regular-season edition of Geno's Quarterly Power Rankings!
- Lexington (5-1) =
- Madison (4-2) =
- Annapolis (4-2) UP 1
- San Jose (3-3) UP 1
- Lincoln (4-2) DOWN 2
- Albuquerque (3-3) =
- Tacoma (1-5) =
- Ottawa (0-6) =
WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS
Geno's Record: Week 6 0-3 ---> Total 7-8 (.467)
TJ's Record: Week 6 3-1 ---> Total 8-12 (.400)
Jay's Record: Week 6 2-1 ---> Total 5-4 (.556)
Slinn's Record: Week 6 3-1 —-> Total 6-2 (.750)
Total Prediction Record: Week 6 8-6 ---> Total 28-27 (.509)
John Fullerton is also back, and he'll be with us for predictions this week!
LINCOLN @ TACOMA
Geno: This is the point in the season where you get eliminated teams facing off with teams that are smack dab in the middle of the playoff hunt. You'll never know what these matchups can bring. However, Lincoln has been on a roll the last 4 weeks, and I doubt that'll stop now. Lincoln wins by a score of 28-24.
TJ: Lincoln keeps rattling, 27-24.
John: The Rattlesnakes take it, 30-20.
Jay: I’m sorry for everyone in Tacoma, but this is the time when you fail to make it to the playoffs again. Lincoln needs to prove that they can hang with the big guys and go to the playoffs by winning this game. Lincoln 34-17.
Slinn: Due to the fact I'm currently at a Bruce Springsteen show with my old man, it's scores only this week - starting with Tacoma shocking Lincoln, 20-12.
MADISON @ OTTAWA
Geno: Madison sits atop the 4-2 teams, which makes me think that they won't be fully focused on Ottawa. Similar to the last matchup, Ottawa is playing with house money, and the house always wins. Ottawa pulls the upset, 34-31.
TJ: Madison barely survives, 22-21.
John: The Lynx hold on, 20-17.
Jay: No prediction (Coach)
Slinn: The week of surprises continues. Ottawa get their first win, beating the Lynx 22-21.
LEXINGTON @ ALBUQUERQUE
Geno: Lexington is coming off their first loss of the season, while the Atoms are coming in with their first winning streak of the season. At this point in the season, it starts to become a game of streaks, and I think that both of those streaks will continue. The Atoms stand their ground, 24-17.
TJ: Lexington fights off the Atoms, 30-24.
John: The Atoms pull the upset, 28-14.
Jay: This game right here is a tough decision. Albuquerque needs this to be over .500, but Lexington wants to show its dominance even more. And I know that this is me being biased because I don’t want Albuquerque in the playoffs again. Get Willy Smoke involved more, and get Chad Moore to throw a lot of TDs. Lexington wins 27-24.
Slinn: Guess what? ANOTHER upset occurs and the Atoms walk away with a 25-16 victory over Lexington.
SAN JOSE @ ANNAPOLIS
Geno: No prediction (Coach)
TJ: Annapolis downs the Flight, 28-17.
John: The Navigators barely hold on, 23-20.
Jay: This game will predict everything right now. If Annapolis wins, Lincoln wins, and Albuquerque loses then the playoffs are set with the top 4 teams. If San Jose wins then they will leap over Annapolis and knock them to 5th. This game is really tough to decide for a winner. And no, I’m not biased this time. I’ll have San Jose winning 34-31.
Slinn: San Jose come back strong after licking their wounds from last week's mauling, but it's not enough. Annapolis take them at home, 32-28.
I'll be gone next week, so we'll have a few different people coming to give you their thoughts on the SFLm, including Xavier Solomon and John Fullerton.